Is the Moon in America’s future?Unpacking the strategic debateby Bhavya Lal
|
| The choice between these approaches will determine not just where humans next land, but how quickly and safely we can establish a permanent presence beyond Earth. |
Mars-direct advocates argue that modern technology has made lunar steppingstones unnecessary and potentially counterproductive. Why spend precious years and billions of dollars developing lunar infrastructure when we could invest those resources in reaching Mars sooner? The Red Planet, they contend, offers humanity’s best chance for a self-sustaining civilization beyond Earth.
Moon-first proponents counter that skipping lunar development would be dangerously premature. They argue that establishing lunar operations would accelerate, not delay, humanity’s path to Mars. Beyond the Mars debate, they contend that the Moon presents compelling opportunities in its own right. Commercial interests see potential for profitable ventures from tourism to resource extraction. National security experts view lunar presence as essential for preventing strategic competitors from dominating space. The choice between these approaches will determine not just where humans next land, but how quickly and safely we can establish a permanent presence beyond Earth.
The Moon’s strategic value
For many advocates of the Moon first approach, the Moon represents more than a steppingstone to Mars: it’s a critical arena for economic development and national security. China’s accelerating lunar program and declaration of space as a “strategic frontier” make establishing a sustained lunar presence an urgent national priority. Control of cislunar space and lunar resources—as and when they are discovered and extracted—will shape the balance of power in space for decades to come.
Commercial opportunities on the Moon don’t require Mars justification. According to advocates, space tourism, resource extraction, and manufacturing in lunar gravity present business cases, however far in the future. Private sector innovation is already driving down costs while increasing capabilities. These commercial activities can create a self-sustaining lunar economy that advances both lunar and Mars development.
A parallel path forward
The Moon-versus-Mars debate often presents a false choice. Modern launch capabilities and commercial innovation enable a more nuanced approach: using the Moon as a proving ground while simultaneously developing Mars-specific technologies. This parallel development strategy could accelerate progress toward both destinations.
Mars-specific technology development could proceed without waiting for lunar validation. Systems unique to Mars, such as entry, descen,t and landing on the Martian surface and long-duration life support, require focused development independent of lunar operations. Commercial approaches can drive rapid innovation for both destinations simultaneously.
The Moon offers two distinct advantages: as a testing site for Mars-relevant technologies and as a strategic destination in its own right. Some lunar systems will specifically support Mars development, while others will serve lunar-specific commercial and security needs. This dual-track approach ensures lunar investment serves multiple national objectives.
Why the Moon accelerates Mars settlement
Critics argue that lunar missions delay Mars development. The reality is counterintuitive but clear: establishing lunar operations will speed up Mars settlement. First, the Moon provides rapid iteration cycles for mission-critical systems. While Mars-analog testing on Earth has value, the Moon offers real partial gravity, actual deep space radiation, and genuine vacuum conditions just three days away. When systems fail—and they will fail—we can recover, examine, and refly them within months, not years. This rapid iteration dramatically accelerates technology development.
| The argument that Moon-first approaches waste resources ignores the cost of failure at Mars. |
Second, lunar operations force us to solve key Mars challenges sooner rather than later. Resource extraction, power generation, dust mitigation, and radiation protection must all work in actual space conditions. The Moon’s harsh environment, while different from Mars, is in many ways more challenging. Systems that work reliably on the Moon will adapt more easily to Mars than vice versa.
Third, the Moon enables parallel development of Mars technologies. Modern launch systems can support both lunar and Mars missions. Each lunar landing provides valuable data for Mars entry, descent, and landing systems. Even resource extraction test on the Moon can advance Mars ISRU technology. We’re not choosing between the Moon and Mars: we’re using the Moon to accelerate Mars development.
Critical to this approach is setting firm timelines for transitioning focus to Mars. For NASA in particular, lunar development must not become an endless cycle of expansion, unless led by the private sector for its own use. Each lunar mission should validate specific Mars-relevant technologies, with clear metrics for when sufficient testing is complete. Commercial partnerships can accelerate development at both destinations, leveraging private sector innovation while maintaining strategic focus.
The economics of speed
The argument that Moon-first approaches waste resources ignores the cost of failure at Mars. Yes, reusable rockets dramatically reduce launch costs. But launch is only part of the Mars challenge. Life support, resource utilization, power systems, and habitats must all work perfectly for years without support. Testing these systems on the Moon may seem expensive until compared to the cost of losing a Mars mission.
Modern commercial approaches and reusable rockets don’t eliminate the need for lunar testing: they make it more feasible. The same systems reducing Mars mission costs also make lunar operations more affordable. We can leverage these cost reductions to conduct more lunar tests, further accelerating Mars technology development.
Strategic imperatives
The Moon provides immediate national security advantages independent of Mars considerations. With China’s accelerating lunar program and Russia’s revanchist space ambitions, the Moon represents a crucial theater for great power competition. A sustained lunar presence enables monitoring and potentially controlling cislunar space—the volume between Earth and Moon that will become increasingly critical as space activity expands.
The Moon’s position grants unique strategic capabilities that cannot be replicated elsewhere. From lunar facilities, we can maintain continuous surveillance of Earth and cislunar space, while controlling critical orbital positions and Lagrange points. This positioning enables comprehensive space domain awareness and defense of critical space infrastructure. Early development of space resources before competitors arrive ensures strategic advantage, while providing protection for expanding commercial activities. These capabilities form an integrated framework for securing American interests in space.
Commercial opportunities
The Moon enables near-term commercial ventures independent of Mars plans. Lunar proximity allows businesses to establish revenue-generating operations within years rather than decades. Space tourism and lunar excursions represent immediate opportunities, while mining of rare earth elements and precious metals offers longer-term potential. Additional ventures include helium-3 extraction for use on Earth, manufacturing in lunar gravity, and testing services for space systems. The development of lunar transport, logistics services, and space-based solar power for lunar use creates a comprehensive economic ecosystem.
| Success demands a dual focus: advancing Mars capabilities while developing lasting lunar infrastructure. |
These commercial activities can create self-sustaining business models that don’t require government subsidies or Mars-forward justification. Commercial innovation will drive down costs while increasing capabilities for both lunar operations and Mars development. The proximity of the Moon allows companies to establish practical business models with near-term returns, attracting private investment that accelerates both lunar and Mars capabilities.
Scientific and observational advantages
Beyond its role as a technology proving ground, the Moon offers unique scientific capabilities that Mars cannot match. The Moon’s far side, permanently shielded from Earth’s radio emissions, provides an unparalleled platform for deep-space observations. This radio-quiet environment enables astronomical discoveries impossible from Earth or Mars, from exploring the early universe to searching for signals from distant exoplanets. These capabilities further justify lunar investment while developing Mars technologies.
Risk and reality
The Moon offers more than just quick emergency returns. It provides essential experience for crews operating in partial gravity, dealing with radiation, and managing resources in space conditions. This real space experience builds crucial operational knowledge for Mars missions. Critical technologies prove themselves in actual space conditions where failures have recoverable consequences, with each lunar success building confidence in Mars systems. Lunar geology, resource extraction, and construction techniques provide essential data for Mars operations, while the Moon’s harsh environment often presents worse challenges than Mars, driving more robust solutions.
Program continuity presents another crucial advantage of the Moon-first approach. Recent history shows how shifting space priorities every four to eight years undermines workforce morale and wastes billions in abandoned development. The current Moon program, unlike previous efforts, has maintained bipartisan support across administrations. Pivoting away would repeat this costly cycle of program cancellations and restarts, setting back both lunar and Mars exploration.
A strategic path forward
Success demands a dual focus: advancing Mars capabilities while developing lasting lunar infrastructure. Some lunar investments will specifically target Mars requirements, while others will support permanent lunar presence for commercial and security purposes. The key is distinguishing between Mars-enabling technologies and lunar-specific infrastructure needed for sustained presence.
Government efforts should concentrate on developing common technologies that support both destinations, while securing strategic capabilities needed for national security. This includes establishing basic infrastructure that enables commercial development and creating international frameworks for space resource utilization. These foundational elements ensure sustainable development of both lunar and Mars capabilities.
Commercial ventures should take the lead in developing revenue-generating lunar operations and driving innovative technology development. Private sector leadership in transportation, logistics services, and resource extraction will accelerate development while ensuring economic sustainability. This division of responsibilities leverages the strengths of both government and commercial sectors.
| The choice isn’t between lunar presence and Mars development: both are essential for America’s space future. |
The pace of development is equally critical. Missions must maintain rapid iteration cycles that build compounding knowledge and capabilities. This requires a flexible architecture that can incorporate new technologies and lessons learned without waiting for perfect solutions. Commercial capabilities should be leveraged to support both lunar and Mars objectives, creating a sustainable economic foundation for deep space exploration. By treating the government’s lunar operations as a technology accelerator rather than a final destination, we can build momentum toward Mars while delivering tangible benefits in the near term.
The cost of delay vs. the cost of failure
Mars-direct advocates correctly emphasize the urgency of becoming multiplanetary. However, they underestimate the delay a failed Mars mission and loss of human life would cause. A Moon-first approach that prevents one failed Mars mission more than justifies its timeline.
The development of aviation provides a useful parallel. Early attempts to achieve powered flight often ended in failure. The Wright Brothers succeeded by conducting rapid, incremental tests where failures were survivable. The Moon offers this same advantage for Mars technology development.
Conclusion
The Moon represents both an essential step toward Mars and a vital destination in its own right. Its value stems not just from enabling Mars settlement, but from its strategic position, resource potential, and commercial opportunities. A sustained lunar presence serves multiple national objectives: advancing Mars capabilities, ensuring space security, and fostering commercial space development.
The choice isn’t between lunar presence and Mars development: both are essential for America’s space future. A well-designed lunar program can accelerate Mars settlement while establishing lasting commercial presence and ensuring strategic control of cislunar space. For those serious about establishing humanity on Mars, the Moon isn’t a detour: it’s the expressway to successful Mars settlement.
Note: we are now moderating comments. There will be a delay in posting comments and no guarantee that all submitted comments will be posted.