Space commerce: face the risk, seize the opportunitiesby Norm Mitchell
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| We are now standing on the threshold of that doorway, with the universe inviting us to step through. |
The possibilities exceed anything previously imagined. There is gold to be discovered, spices and silk to be bartered for, adventures to be had, and fortunes to be won. But of course, the venture is not without risk. Violent storms, shipwrecks, and mutinies are hazards of the occupation. Plus, you must contend with enemy navies while pirates, who find it more desirable to plunder merchant ships than to build fortunes through honest labor, abound. Privateers are augmenting military forces to provide maritime security. As if that weren’t enough to worry about, the logistical efforts required to sustain ocean voyages are staggering.
Now imagine that in 2025, you have the same sort of opportunities your predecessors did 400 years ago—because you do. Space launch technology has been pushed to unprecedented heights, and Earth’s atmosphere is no longer the barrier it once was. The potential to discover new worlds, build wealth, and develop technologies that can benefit humanity exceeds that of the age of sail by many orders of magnitude.
Humans have been venturing into space for 60 years, and the early pioneers who made up the first wave of space exploration have cracked open the door to a domain that holds infinite possibility. We are now standing on the threshold of that doorway, with the universe inviting us to step through.
Space traffic will almost certainly grow exponentially over the next five to ten years, as Earth’s spacefaring peoples explore new worlds and seek fortune and adventure. Space is becoming increasingly accessible, allowing new entrants to venture into the new frontier. It is not improbable to imagine recurring trips to the Moon by the end of this decade, nor is it farfetched to imagine trips to Mars and even the asteroid belt by the end of the next.
Currently, we use space primarily as a place to employ stand-off sensors and beyond-line-of-sight communications platforms, but we should expect that to change soon. People toss around ideas about space tourism, but really, that’s the tip of an iceberg of commercial possibilities whose depth we haven’t begun to fathom.
The initial focus of space commerce will likely be on resource acquisition, energy production, and advanced manufacturing. Asteroids may prove to be the source of rare earth minerals and valuable metals, and the Moon’s bountiful reserves of helium-3 could be a promising, low-radioactivity fuel for future nuclear fusion reactors.
| For those of us on the crest of this second wave of space exploration, scientific and economic opportunities abound. These opportunities lie just beyond the threshold on which we stand. |
As one might expect, the opportunities come with inherent risks. Aside from the obvious hazards inherent to the harsh space environment, other threats will surely materialize. Enemy space fleets (manned and unmanned) and space pirates will certainly be problems with which spacefaring companies must reckon. For every opportunity, there is a risk, yet even the risks present new opportunities for enterprising space companies. Ambitious countries may find it advantageous to specialize in one of the emerging space market niches. Here are a few of those opportunities.
Manufacturing
- Long-range space transports and asteroid-mining systems will have to be manufactured on-orbit.
- Lunar bases will need to be constructed to facilitate mining, research, and communications.
Logistics
- We are going to need transfer stations where travelers or machinery can transfer from short-range shuttles to long-range transports.
- Orbiting satellites or transport ships will need refueling stations that can be stockpiled with fuel or that possess an efficient energy generation capability.
- Space mining companies will need a steerable recovery capability: a way to send materials back to Earth without threatening populated areas or air traffic, and they will have to reliably deliver it to a secure area that’s not so remote that it’s cost prohibitive to retrieve.
- We will need reusable space launch platforms to get people, machines, and cargo into orbit. Naturally, these launch platforms will need efficient and capable spaceports, complete with the terrestrial infrastructure needed to sustain regular spacelift operations. Countries with optimum spaceport locations, particularly those near the Equator, may discover new economic development opportunities in the space transport business.
- It is now commonly understood, but worth mentioning, that we will need to develop methods of cleaning up orbital debris to ensure a sustainable future for space operations.
Information management and communications
- The amount of data that we will need to collect, store, process, and turn into useful information is going to be orders of magnitude above what we can currently envision.
- Speaking of data, we’re going to need to transport that data from the middle of the solar system back to Earth.
- We’ll need the ability to remotely operate and monitor mining equipment as far away as the asteroid belt (beyond Mars).
- We’ll need to remotely monitor transfer stations and on-orbit refueling stations for security purposes.
- We’ll need to monitor space traffic, which will probably entail a combination of sensors, transponders, tracking systems, and control stations.
- Disciplined frequency management will be critical. We will need to devise new communication methods and new high-efficiency waveforms that optimize the capacity of existing frequency bands.
Navigation and security
- We will need to leverage space traffic management systems to avoid collisions between spacecraft and debris and to efficiently route interplanetary traffic to and from Earth.
- Naturally, orbital refueling stations and cargos of valuable minerals or precious metals will be tempting targets for thieves or for nation-state rivals. We will need to find ways to safeguard them.
- Companies will need to be able to provide security for recovery operations that bring lunar, Martian, or asteroid resources back to Earth.
- National economic interests will likely dictate that governments make space commerce protection a standard military mission set. Once criminal organizations or thuggish militaries make it to space, then we’ll need to stand up a regiment of space troopers. Private security companies will undoubtedly play a role as well.
For those of us on the crest of this second wave of space exploration, scientific and economic opportunities abound. These opportunities lie just beyond the threshold on which we stand. We must cross that threshold to begin benefitting from the new worlds we will discover, and the scientific advancements that result will dwarf those of the age of sail. The opportunities are virtually limitless. Let us be courageous and generous enough to seize them!
The human race stands to make tremendous advances in knowledge, manufacturing, energy production, and commerce. The resources are limitless, but human nature being what it is, we will almost certainly find ourselves in conflict over them. One thing is clear: the countries and companies that master the challenges of this new domain will have a massive economic advantage over the rest. We should start building the skills and capabilities required to master that domain today.
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